Early Monsoon On Horizon Raises Farmers' Hopes For Timely Sowing, Heat Relief

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Last Updated:May 21, 2025, 03:28 IST

Once it makes its onset, the southwest monsoon usually covers the full state by July 8. IMD is yet to contented its month-wise forecast for June, which volition springiness a clearer outlook

The farmers are besides pinning their hopes connected IMD’s archetypal long-range forecast of above-normal monsoon this year, indicating a higher probability of excess rains, astatine slightest 105% supra the long-period mean (LPA). (Representational Image)

India is anticipating an aboriginal accomplishment of the southwest monsoon this May, with conditions becoming favourable for its onset implicit Kerala successful the adjacent 4 to 5 days. While this comes arsenic a large alleviation for heat-stressed regions, it besides renews hopes of farmers preparing for the timely sowing of the rain-fed Kharif crops.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is rapidly advancing implicit the South Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of the Maldives and the Comorin area, the Lakshadweep areas, and the Bay of Bengal and is apt to scope Kerala and Tamil Nadu this week. This is successful enactment with MeT’s erstwhile forecast, which hinted astatine the monsoon’s aboriginal accomplishment connected May 27 (+/-4 days). This would besides people the monsoon’s earliest accomplishment implicit India successful astatine slightest 5 years.

Boost for kharif crops

An aboriginal accomplishment augurs good for the farmers who are preparing their fields for the sowing of the rain-fed kharif crops, particularly paddy. Once it sets successful implicit Kerala, the monsoon takes implicit a period to screen the remainder of the state and completes its travel by July 8, marking the opening of the four-month season. The seasonal rains are the lifeline of India’s agrarian economy, arsenic they supply implicit 75% of the yearly rains.

Last year, the monsoon made its onset connected May 31, covered the state by July 2, and ended the play with excess rains—108% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Major paddy-growing authorities Punjab has already begun nonstop sowing of paddy from May 15 onwards. In bid to conserve groundwater, the authorities has committed to bringing 5 lakh acres nether the Direct Sowing of Rice (DSR) method this year, arsenic portion of which pre-germinated seeds are sown directly, alternatively than transplanting seeds from a nursery by a tractor-powered instrumentality 20-30 days later, redeeming water.

Excess rains this monsoon season?

The farmers are besides pinning their hopes connected IMD’s archetypal long-range forecast of above-normal monsoon this year, indicating a higher probability of excess rains, astatine slightest 105% supra the long-period mean (LPA). The forecast involves a exemplary mistake of +/-5%. The long-period mean for the seasonal rainfall implicit India from 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm.

In a large relief, the prevailing conditions implicit the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which thin to importantly impact the monsoon, are besides neutral and apt to stay truthful during the season, ruling retired immoderate El Niño formation. With favourable conditions, the IMD is assured of a bully monsoon this year, highlighting that the forecast probability of deficient oregon below-normal rains is conscionable 11%.

However, the IMD’s 2nd long-range forecast, owed to beryllium released astatine the extremity of May, volition connection a clearer outlook, with month-wise predictions for the seasonal rains.

Meanwhile, with dense rains lashing the confederate states, the IMD has already warned that the wide rains are apt to proceed implicit parts of the confederate peninsula, including Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan-Goa, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and Telangana during the adjacent 7 days. A low-pressure country is besides apt to signifier implicit the east-central Arabian Sea disconnected the Karnataka seashore astir May 22, which volition intensify and determination northwards.

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